TOWARD A SOUTHEAST ASIAN FEDERATION: A Scenario Analysis of Political, Economic, and Geopolitical Integration Among Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines

Blog teaser: Southeast Asian Federation working paper

Working Paper · WP-2025-SEA-01

What if five Southeast Asian nations
became one?

A scenario analysis of a hypothetical federation uniting Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines — and what it would mean for the world.

🇻🇳 Vietnam 🇮🇩 Indonesia 🇲🇾 Malaysia 🇹🇭 Thailand 🇵🇭 Philippines

~600M People

$4.2T GDP (PPP)

#4 Economy globally

Individually, these five nations compete for foreign investment, fragment supply chains, and negotiate solo against great powers. Together, they would control 40% of global maritime trade through the Malacca Strait — and speak with a single voice in the US–China rivalry.

• What a federal legislature, rotating presidency, and sovereignty protection framework would look like
• Three integration scenarios: Economic Union (2030), Confederal Union (2040), Full Federation (2050)
• Why Indonesia's size, Vietnam's political system, and China's opposition are the biggest structural barriers
• Lessons from the EU, German reunification, and ASEAN's own evolution

Read the full working paper

10 sections · 26 pages · Free to download · WP-2025-SEA-01

Download the paper

May 2025 Southeast Asian Political Economy Research Series Speculative Scenario Analysis